NJ weather: Changes ahead, as humidity and thunderstorms return

Jan 25, 2024

For the past four days in a row, we have enjoyed low humidity, an abundance of sunshine, and temperatures at or below seasonal normals. Just a gorgeous stretch of weather.

But now, we have some changes to talk about. My best description: More typical August weather is coming up. Although nothing too crazy or concerning.

Humidity levels will slowly tick up on Thursday. That will have three impacts on our weather: 1.) Slightly stickier days (but not steamy or tropical), 2.) Noticeably warmer nights, and 3.) Enhanced rain chances as a couple of storm systems fly by NJ.

An isolated shower is possible Thursday. A thunderstorm may develop Thursday night. And then Friday looks unsettled, with spotty showers and thunderstorms around. It will not be an "all day" kind of thing, but you will probably get wet at some point.

The good news: We should dry out and warm up just in time for the first weekend of August.

Overall, Thursday will be another pleasant day.

There is one new wrinkle, as forecast models paint some isolated showers over New Jersey in the afternoon hours. I'm not sure I completely buy a "widespread rain" kind of solution. But it is worth mentioning.

Otherwise, we'll enjoy a mix of sun and clouds, with an occasional southerly breeze. Morning lows are mainly in the 50s one more time. (60s in cities and along the coast.) Afternoon highs are forecast to hit the lower 80s, with only a hint of humidity in the air.

One important note if you're heading to the beach: There is an elevated risk of dangerous rip currents posted for the Jersey Shore Thursday. (And Friday too.) Use extra caution and swim only on guarded beaches. And remember: The ocean is stronger than you.

The chance of a thunderstorm will go up starting around Midnight Thursday night. We will not see widespread 50s, thanks to increased humidity. But mid 60s are pretty standard and pretty comfortable for midsummer.

The most unsettled day of the week.

But I am actually backing off the alarm bells for flooding and severe weather. The atmosphere looks less dynamic and less juicy, and storms will be more widely scattered than initially believed.

Having said that, you will probably get wet at some point Friday. Best chance for spotty showers and thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and evening hours. We will still have to be on the lookout for a heavier thunderstorm cell at some point, of course. Hopefully it is clear that stormy weather will not be an all-day thing.

In between raindrops, Friday will be mostly cloudy to overcast. That will keep high temperatures down, around 75 to 80 degrees at best. If a rainier solution plays out, I could see some spots ending up closer to the 70-degree mark instead.

There is a chance that Friday's dying convection leads to some showers lingering around New Jersey Saturday morning. Let's call it a slight chance.

The rest of the day looks great. Partly sunny skies, moderate humidity (dew point in the 60s), and seasonably warm temperatures. Highs should reach the mid 80s, which is right on the normal high for early August. A sea breeze should keep beaches cooler and more comfortable, potentially in the 70s.

All around, on paper, Saturday reads like a great summer day.

And Sunday looks good too. Again, partly sunny and mid 80s.

There is a chance our next storm system shoves in some showers starting Sunday night. At the moment, guidance puts that rain chance after Midnight.

Monday will be another stormy day, with the potential for some severe weather and heavy rain late-day. Then we will enter another period of quiet, pleasant, warm weather through midweek. The next opportunity for a storm system would come late next week, and could impact next weekend. But we will talk more about that as it gets closer, of course.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.